On Saturday for the first time in my life I could see a Triple Crown Winner in the Sport of Kings. I'll Have Another makes a dash for immortality on Saturday as he attempts to go down in the history books with great thoroughbreds like Seattle Slew,Secretariat, and Affirmed. If I'll Have Another comes up short by even one link he will be linked infamously with War Emblem, Funny Cide, Smarty Jones, The Buffalo Bills and Your 1st Place Texas Rangers.
My love affair with Horse Racing begun in 2001 as a 22-year-old kid. My old roommate Shawn and I went out to Lone Star Park to drink and "celebrate our birthdays" (not gay they are two days apart). On that night I knew jack-squat about horse racing but none the less I walked away ahead $750 at the end of the night. My roommate was almost as lucky as he came home with a cool $500. We both hit two trifectas out of dumb luck or something like it.
I was so green I didn't even box one of my tris. I walked up and cashed it in and the cashier said "You didn't even box it". To which my response was "What's a box?".
After that night I became an instant expert. I spit out some bs and acted like I knew what I was talking about. After many hours at the track somewhere along the way I meet true Horse Gamblers like my Dad's buddy Johnny,my Grandfather and my buddy Duck. They taught me a little here and there on our trips out to the track. So I added some knowledge to my bs which made me dangerous.
Fast Forward 11 years in the future. Two weeks before the derby I call my buddy and old roommate Shawn and tell him I'll Have Another is going to win the Kentucky Derby.
Then on May 2,2012 I'm sitting in my corporate office talking racing with another true horse gambler my co-worker Jason. Jason was a little older than I was (mid 50s) and always wore his long gray hair in a pony tail. He looked like the type of guy you would see at the track at noon on an average Wednesday. He and I constantly had conversations about the ponies and talked racing.
This day we were sitting around waiting for the Kentucky Derby Post Draw instead of working. I kept on talking about I'll Have Another being the best Horse in the Derby. You can call Jason or Jen (another co-worker that was listen to Jason and talk Derby) at the office @ 1-866-870-6992 and ask them if you don't believe me. You'll have to catch Jason before noon because I think he cuts out and goes to the track most days after that.
Back to that day we were talking Derby and I was placing my bets and I had I'll Have Another,Creative,Cause and Bodemister tagged as the money. Then the draw happen and I'll Have Another drew Post Position #19. No Horse in the 138 year history of the Kentucky Derby has ever won from the 19 position. Rule #1 in gambling never bet against a streak. I being a pretty smart gambler yanked I'll Have Another from all of my bets except one tri.
On that Saturday in May I was watching the Derby eating Larry's Kick Ass Meatballs with my mom then I'll Have Another hit his stride. You should have heard the explicit string of profanity I put together once he won! I would never talk like that in front of my mother unless Horse Racing or football was involved. She screamed LARRY DEAN and practically choked on her meatballs.
I wasn't mad at I'll Have Another. I was mad at myself for not trusting my gut. When the Preakness rolled around I made one bet. You know what? That bet was the winning Tri and it only paid pennies. I stuck to my gut and it was right.
This week I have studied and studied the horses at the Belmont and I think there are only 3 that have a realistic possibility to win. They are #3 Union Rags (who also was a Derby Favorite), #5 Dullahan (Showed in Kentucky Derby) and of course on the outside #11 I'll Have Another.
After all my number crunching,stat studying and research this week I have come to this conclusion; On Saturday June 9th 2012 for the first time in 34 years we will have a Triple Crown Winner! Circle your freaking Calenders!
The problem for the #5 and #3 is the #2 horse Unstoppable U. The #2 is a sprinter that has only ran short distances before. He has won both of his prior starts. If the #5 Dullahan and the #3 Union Rags try to keep the pace with Unstoppable U they are going to get swallowed up in the end as the #2 will. This leaves the door wide open for the #11 I'll Have Another to run his race and close from the outside.
Here are my picks for The 2012 Belmont Stakes.
Win-#11 I'll Have Another
Place- #9 Paynter
Show- #8 Guyana Star Dweej
That's Right I have a 50-1 to Show! Bet Him.
Enjoy The Belmont Stakes. Let me hear your winners! larry@bigbadsportsdaddy.com
Plugs
Relaunching My Podcast on BigBadSportsDaddy.com on Monday. Check out the new crew!
You can follow me on twitter @bigbadlarry
